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The Avoidable Cloud

AI forecasts of where contrails will form are being trialled in airline flight planning and, from this winter, in air traffic instructions over the North Atlantic.

What is it?

An AI forecast of where contrails will form was tested in flight planning at American Airlines, where a dispatcher chose whether to fly the contrail plan, and will inform controllers’ deviations over the North Atlantic. Google’s forecast sits under all three trials here.

Why now?

A model trained on contrail detections in satellite imagery forecasts where a cloud will form, and flight-planning software drafts a plan around it. American’s trial ran inside normal flight planning; Operation Blue Skies, launched on 18 August 2026, takes the forecast to an oceanic airspace. People still decide.

Who’s building it?

Google supplies the forecast; American Airlines, Flightkeys, NATS and Cathay Pacific carry it into plans and instructions.

GoogleAmerican AirlinesFlightkeysNATSCathay Pacific
The full read
Why now, who is building it, where the market goes, and what stays unsettled.
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01 · The market
Who’s in it
Builders — Google and Flightkeys; the UK’s Met Office and NATS.
Buyers — airlines, American and Cathay Pacific among them, plus the UK government as funder.
Gatekeepers — dispatchers who release plans and controllers who issue each altitude change.
What’s at stake
Whether controllers’ deviations of up to 2,000 feet across the Shanwick area become routine practice after Operation Blue Skies.
How many flights fly the plan dispatchers are offered.
One supplier, Google, forecasts for all three trials here.
What’s unsettled
Does the American result hold beyond its eastbound North Atlantic flights?
What shapes a dispatcher’s choice to avoid: interface, weather or safety?
Would the trial results differ if the forecast came from a provider other than Google?
02 · How the demand matureda progression, not a timeline
Novelty
A machine-learning forecast went into American’s flight-planning platform for a randomised trial.
Retention
Operation Blue Skies runs 30 months, with test periods across two winters.
Willingness to pay
the UK government pays more than half of a £5 million study.
Category arc
from an airline’s trial to a controller-led airspace programme, with Cathay Pacific a third.
03 · Where the market goesthe forks, not a prediction
→Controllers and dispatchers adopt it. Contrail plans become a routine option in flight planning and in oceanic air traffic instructions.
→The interface matters. The authors say better software could raise how many flights fly the plan.
→Fuel stays in the balance. The optimiser weighs contrails beside fuel, delays and overflight charges.
→One supplier, many trials. Results rest on Google’s forecast until another is tested.
The open question is whether results from Google’s forecast carry over: to other airlines, other airspace, and a forecast from a different provider.
04 · The Agentic Delegation deskadjacent markets, moving now
The Co-Piloted Airspace
FAA scheduling AI also keeps staff deciding.
FAA’s new scheduling engine has every recommendation reviewed by staff.
FAA Newsroom
The Overridden Forecast
Grocery store managers also override AI forecast orders.
ReFED finds managers frequently override AI waste-cutting orders.
ReFED
The Answerable Dispatcher
EU directive puts a person behind account suspensions.
EU directive requires a human to decide account suspensions
EUR-Lex
05 · The Wire
01
American tested an AI contrail forecast in flight planning.
arXiv, Google Research, American Airlines, Flightkeys and others ↗
02
A UK trial will move hundreds of flights on AI forecasts.
Associated Press ↗
03
NATS becomes the first air navigation provider to oversee such a trial.
Leeham News, reprinting AIN ↗
04
Google says Cathay’s early trials cut contrail warming about 40%.
Google blog (company account) ↗
The panel on this signal
They agreed on
–A machine-learning forecast was used in American’s flight planning and will inform North Atlantic air traffic instructions.
–People still decide: dispatchers release plans, controllers issue changes.
–Google supplies the forecast in American’s trial, the UK programme and Cathay Pacific’s.
The behavioral economist disagreed on
–The 62.0% describes the 112 flights dispatchers chose to fly, a selected group, and the Cathay figure is Google’s estimate.
Know more about the method →
✦How this signal was built
01 · Panel
A Delphi panel of 4 AI analysts, each reasoning independently.
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02 · Debate
They challenge and revise each other’s reads over two rounds.
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03 · Evidence
Every claim is tied to a cited, linked source on The Wire.
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04 · Synthesis
A moderator writes it into one read, disagreement and all.